While the government has called this the “biggest trade deal since Brexit” and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak labelled it an example of “real economic benefits of our post-Brexit freedoms”, BBC News reports, the real impact will be minor.
“The gains for the UK from joining are expected to be modest. The UK already has free trade deals with all of the members except Brunei and Malaysia, some of which were rolled over from its previous membership of the EU,” BBC News reports. “And even with some gains in trading the government only estimates it will add 0.08% to the size of the economy in 10 years.”
The BBC News article compares this 0.08% estimate to a previous statement from the Office for Budget Responsibility, which rated the long-term downward impact of Brexit on the UK’s economic growth at 4%.
Will a services-sector benefit touted by the government – that UK firms need not establish local offices to trade in CPTPP member states – pay off? Time will tell.